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And if that doesn't make you mad enough to write a strongly-worded letter, I don't know what will. "Thus it is that in war the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory." - Sun Tzu We've already lost this battle through regulatory capture. The question is: are we smart enough to realize it and change course? China did. India did. Hell, Iran did. slides another drink across the table Now, let me tell you about the fusion scam...

The Transparency Solution The ironclad reform package requires immediate net-of-fee reporting, standardized fee disclosure, and protected whistleblower programs with financial incentives. Technology implementation should include AI-powered anomaly detection, public APIs for real-time access, and blockchain for immutable transaction records. Reform Phase Timeline Key Requirements [I don't think we need a blockchain. Lulz to AI. But you get the point.]The Path Forward The pension fund looting represents a far greater threat to Americans' quality of life than immigration or other commonly cited issues. Every veterinary bill, rent payment, childcare invoice, and healthcare cost now includes a hidden tax flowing to private equity firms and pension fund backers. The solution requires recognizing pension funds as government actors they truly are, implementing radical transparency reforms, and potentially restricting pension investment in essential service industries. The Irony of Public Service The irony is profound: public employees' own retirement savings have become the primary tool for extracting wealth from their communities. Meanwhile, an elite class of retired government employees collects pension payments that can exceed $400,000 annually, creating a system where current workers fund both inflated service costs and extreme pension payments. Why ERISA Transparency Is the Only SolutionERISA's success demonstrates that transparency and accountability work—private pensions achieved better performance with lower fees and minimal unfunded liabilities.[69] The fiduciary standard creates natural limits that prevent the speculative excess plaguing public pensions. Fee transparency creates competitive pressure, while legal accountability ensures decision-makers face consequences for poor performance. The Error Detection Advantage ERISA transparency enables better error correction and detection through multiple mechanisms. When fees are disclosed, excessive costs become obvious; when performance is transparent, underperforming managers get fired; when fiduciaries face personal liability, they make better decisions. Public pensions lack these feedback mechanisms, allowing problems to compound for years before detection. The First Step in a Long JourneyApplying ERISA transparency to public pensions won't solve every problem overnight, but it's the essential first step. International best practices from Norway, Netherlands, and Canada show that perfect transparency is achievable with modern technology. Only through understanding the true scope of pension fund control can we begin to address the drivers of American economic inequality and social dysfunction. The Choice Before Us The trajectory seems clear: continued consolidation until regulatory intervention or market failure forces reconsideration. The question isn't whether this system is sustainable, but rather what replaces it when the contradiction between public good and private returns becomes undeniable. Maximizing pension returns through market monopolization ultimately undermines the very communities these funds serve. The stealth nationalization of America is nearly complete, creating an elite class of government pensioners collecting hundreds of thousands annually while young workers pay inflated prices for essential services. The shadowy technology ecosystem helping private equity firms conceal their performance ensures this system can continue without accountability. The only question is whether we'll recognize it in time to implement the transparency reforms that could begin to fix it. ERISA transparency for public pensions represents our best hope for restoring accountability to a system that has quietly seized control of the American economy. Citations:  Citations1. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), "State and Local Government Employee Retirement Fund Assets" 2. Marketsgroup, "Global Pension Assets Study 2024" 3. OECD Economic Outlook Database, "Government Financial Balance Sheet" 4. Crunchbase, "Uber Funding History and Investor Database" 5. Covington & Burling LLP, "Eric Holder TNC Regulatory Framework" 6. New York Times, "Taxi Driver Suicides and the Uber Economy" 7. New York Post, "Douglas Schifter Suicide Note" 8. NYC Taxi and Limousine Commission, "Medallion Transaction Data" 9. Philadelphia Parking Authority and Chicago Department of Business Affairs 10. CalPERS Pension Database, "Annual Retiree Report 2024" 11. California State Controller's Office, "Public Employees' Retirement System Report" 12. Transparent California, "Public Employee Pension Database" 13. CalPERS Annual Comprehensive Financial Report 2024 14. U.S. Census Bureau, "Dependency Ratios and Demographic Transitions" 15. National Center for Health Statistics, "Life Expectancy Trends" 16. California Legislative Analyst's Office, "Pension System Demographics" 17. National Association of Realtors, "Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends" 18. Pew Charitable Trusts, "The State Pension Funding Gap" 19. California Department of Finance, "Public Employees' Retirement System Liability" 20. Allvue Systems website and client materials 21. SS&C Technologies Annual Report 2024 22. FIS Global, "Private Capital Management Solutions" 23. Chronograph company materials and press releases 24. American Veterinary Medical Association, "Private Equity in Veterinary Medicine" 25. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Consumer Price Index for Veterinary Services" 26. ECA Partners, "HVAC, Plumbing & Electrical M&A Activity Report" 27. National Bureau of Economic Research, "Private Equity and Nursing Home Quality" 28. Center for American Progress, "Private Equity in Childcare" 29. Joint Center for Housing Studies, "America's Rental Housing 2024" 30. Federal Housing Finance Agency, "House Price Index" 31. Tampa Bay Business Journal, "Rental Market Analysis" 32. KKR Press Release, "Neighborly Acquisition" 33. RevCycle Intelligence, "Private Equity Healthcare Pricing Impact" 34. Harvard Business School, "Public Pension Investment Strategies" 35. CalPERS Investment Committee Minutes 2018-2019 36. CalPERS Annual Investment Plan 2022 37. Government Accountability Office, "Public Pension Transparency" 38. Pew Charitable Trusts, "Hidden Pension Fees Study" 39. Center for Retirement Research, "Public Pension Fee Disclosure" 40. Private Equity International, "Technology Platform Analysis" 41. Federal Reserve, "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuations" 42. Preqin Global Private Equity Report 2024 43. Bain Capital Global Private Equity Report 2024 44. NYC Department of Finance, "Housing Data" 45. NYC Department of Health, "Vital Statistics Report" 46. CDC National Center for Health Statistics, "Fertility Rates by Age" 47. Pew Research Center, "Young Adult Housing Priorities" 48. Department of Labor, "ERISA Overview and Impact" 49. CEM Benchmarking, "Public vs Private Pension Performance" 50. Urban Institute, "Pension Fund Performance Analysis" 51. Employee Benefits Research Institute, "ERISA Fiduciary Standards" 52. NBC News, "McDonald's Ice Cream Machine Investigation" 53. Taylor Company Annual Report (via Middleby Corporation) 54. Wikipedia, "McDonald's Ice Cream Machine" 55. Boring Business, "McDonald's Ice Cream Machine Monopoly" 56. Freethink, "Kytch vs McDonald's Case Study" 57. Bain Capital Press Release, "US LBM Acquisition" 58. National Association of Home Builders, "Lumber Price Impact" 59. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Construction Cost Index" 60. CalMatters, "Pension Investment in Construction Materials" 61. European Venture Capital Association, "Annual Report 2024" 62. NVCA, "Venture Capital Allocation Study" 63. TechCrunch, "European Unicorn Relocation Trend" 64. Index Ventures and Creandum press materials 65. ServiceChannel, "Service Cost Inflation Analysis" 66. Author analysis of pension allocation and cost data 67. Norges Bank Investment Management, "Transparency Report" 68. APG (Netherlands) and CPP Investments (Canada) annual reports 69. Employee Benefits Research Institute, "ERISA Success Metrics"

I believed the USDA rural loan program was one of the last refuges for those at the bottom against a regime of new taxes, fees, and expenses coming to the American taxpayer. https://dailyyonder.com/analysis-trump-2026-budget-slashes-rural-housing-and-other-programs/2025/05/06/ “USDA Programs Key USDA housing programs that would receive zero 2026 funding under the Trump budget include USDA Sec. 502 direct home loans for low-income borrowers and the 60-year-old self-help housing program.  Turning to USDA Rural Development, the document says that the “Budget would also eliminate programs that are duplicative, too small to have macro-economic impact, costly to deliver, in limited demand, available through the private sector, or conceived as temporary. These include rural business programs, single family housing direct loans, self-help housing grants, telecommunications loans, and rural housing vouchers. Rural Development salaries and expenses are reduced commensurately.” Hmmm. Well, the 502 loan program dates from 1950 and is one of the federal government’s oldest housing programs for low-income people. It is also a loan program that is repaid to the government. The Sec. 502 direct program between 1950 and 2020 has provided loans to allow 2.2 million low-income rural families to become homeowners. Most of those families would not have become homeowners without that program. ” Was fun while it lasted. 

Prelude: Coining MARC™ I’m coining a term: Mutually Assured Refining Capacity (MARC)™. Unlike Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), which relies on nuclear deterrence, MARC™ binds nations through their dependence on scarce oil refineries.  We can call it a working thesis, idea, or idea under development - the guard rails of energy flows, a primary way I evaluate geopolitics and its limits from time to time.  The world has ~825 refineries processing ~100 million barrels per day (bpd) globally, disrupting this supply chain risks economic collapse for all.  MARC™©is a term I’ve coined to highlight this overlooked force for global peace. Refineries Are Critical and Complex Global InterdependenceEurope imports 30% of its diesel from Asia. Saudi Arabia fuels jets in 50+ countries. A single refinery attack could halt global aviation, making all-out war economic suicide. MARC™ as the New RealityMARC™ ensures nations prioritize trade over destruction. Refineries are the world's great vulnerability and have the capacity to constrain potential wars to skirmishes or peace.  

The data shows that America will simply be too old for war and manufacturing. After even that groundbreaking work, there's endless delays on the semiconductor fab in Arizona. Highest cost per FLOP fab on the planet potentially. Time will tell.  EVEN if we fixed it, we'd still have to fix countless EPA laws and we're pushing up against cartelization of PE firms that used a lot of money to buy small construction and contracting businesses whereby licensures are the only moat.  Nobody has provided me data counterfactuals for my thesis that America cannot afford more manufacturing at scale and more extended wars. Labor is unresolved, our dollar is too strong, and many more issues. 

My latest obsession has been looking up median ages of countries. It's a whirlwind of a subject and my mind meanders while I write this. I am someone who for all practical purposes is always thinking about metrics, data, conditional probabilities, human behavior, energy, and how they intertwine in stochastic systems. Median age for the last decade wasn't on my mind as much, but now it's going heavily mainstream front and center. Japan will soon have more people over the age of 50 than under which is a bit wild to think about. The median age of the world is ~30 years old. On a 25-50 year basis, my money isn't on India or western countries, my money is on African countries.  Perhaps we all die to a lack of fertile death, soil Salination-Erosion-denitrification...it's hard to say.  50% of the world's 4 quadrillion calories are serviced by nitrogen fertilizer produced with 5% of the world's total natural gas.  That fertilizer wrecks the composition of soil at an atomic level making it less productive on a calorie/hectare basis.  The total debt of the world is about 350 trillion dollars or ~$35k for every man, woman, and child.  Sometimes, I regret studying chemistry and math, but alas...there's only one life to live....well kinda.  Also, I think it's time for some debt jubilees or wars to reset the debt or have it forgotten.

tldr: There's a lot of bullshit going on right now about Lithium propulsion boats and planes, don't trust the energy return on investment or viability of its profitability...it's fundamentally a net negative energy return on investment. Edits* - there's a hacker news thread where I'm getting roasted by programmers, I'll survive. Profitable = productively profitable for the amount of PE or venture capital invested when benchmarked against other relevant assets with the same grid thesis. There's a lot of mids who will argue about LCOEs being wrong but they never propose an alternative to their overly optimistic capacity factors, neglect of degradation and replacement costs, and inconsistent-or excluded charging costs(grids matter).   Elon lies through his teeth and boldly in a room full of people.  Physicists Get Too Much Street Cred and Access to Venture CapitalI've often opined that physicists are the ultimate fauxdustrialists. Readily able to lie at a moment's notice. Many refer to themselves as "polymaths." I think the physicist mindset has infected a large swath of venture capital with delusions about what's possible with lithium ion battery technology. Transportation Science research shows that even "fast charging" still takes 40 minutes to reach 80% capacity, compared to 7 minutes for a complete conventional refill. This directly translates to a 22% reduction in asset utilization—meaning electric fleets need to be significantly larger to provide the same service levels. Let's Get Real: The Path ForwardLook, I'm not saying electric propulsion can never work for aviation and marine applications. I'm saying it doesn't work now, and it won't work until we see: 1. Battery energy density improve by at least 4-5× (which requires fundamental material science breakthroughs, not incremental improvements) 2. Grid carbon intensity decrease by 60-70% across all regions (not just the Pacific Northwest) 3. Fast charging technology that can actually deliver 100% capacity in under 15 minutes without cooking the batteries According to Resources, Conservation & Recycling, end-of-life processing adds another $35-50/kWh in specialized handling costs—battery disposal isn't just an environmental  challenge, it's an economic one. Chemistry is Hard. Much harder than physics. Electric propulsion for aircraft and boats remains an economically unsustainable proposition that fails basic energy accounting. Anyone claiming profitability is either leaving out major parts of the lifecycle analysis or banking on massive subsidies to mask the fundamental problems. Chemistry doesn't care about your investment prospectus, and thermodynamics can't be overruled by marketing. The numbers don't lie—lithium propulsion for aircraft and boats is some montauk VC pension hot potato bullshit that has no viable conspiracy to overcome its fundamental atomic limitations.  Citations:  Visualization 1:  1. Gruber, P., et al. (2021). "Global Lithium Availability and Extraction Environmental Impacts." Resources Policy, 70, 101976. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101976 2. International Energy Agency. (2023). "The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions." IEA Special Report. https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions 3. Electric Power Research Institute. (2023). "Grid Integration Challenges for High-Power Transportation Charging." EPRI Technical Report 3002025947. https://www.epri.com/research/products/000000003002025947 4. Journal of Cleaner Production. (2023). "Energy requirements in global battery supply chains." 385, 135456. https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-cleaner-production 5. Maritime Economics & Logistics. (2024). "Maintenance economics of electric vessel propulsion." 26(1), 78-94. https://link.springer.com/journal/41278 VISUALIZATION 2: Energy Density Comparison1. MIT Technology Review. (2024). "The Energy Density Wall: Why Batteries Still Can't Compete with Fossil Fuels." Spring 2024 Edition. https://www.technologyreview.com/energy 2. Society of Automotive Engineers. (2024). "Weight analysis of electric propulsion systems for aviation applications." SAE Technical Paper 2024-01-0873. https://www.sae.org/publications/technical-papers 3. Journal of Aircraft Design. (2023). "Volume and weight constraints in electric aircraft design." 42(3), 308-321. https://arc.aiaa.org/loi/ja Visualization 3 1. Ambrose, H., et al. (2022). "Life-cycle analysis of high-capacity transportation batteries." Journal of Industrial Ecology, 24(1), 120-132. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/15309290 2. BloombergNEF. (2023). "Battery Metals Outlook 2023-2030." Bloomberg New Energy Finance. https://about.bnef.com/battery-metals-outlook/ 3. Sustainable Energy Technologies. (2024). "Energy requirements for advanced battery manufacturing facilities." 45, 101203. https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/sustainable-energy-technologies-and-assessments 4. Resources, Conservation & Recycling. (2024). "End-of-life costs for transportation-grade lithium batteries." 185, 106686. https://www.journals.elsevier.com/resources-conservation-and-recycling VISUALIZATION 4: U.S. Grid Carbon Intensity by Region 1. U.S. EPA eGRID. (2023). "Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database." Environmental Protection Agency. https://www.epa.gov/egrid 2. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. (2023). "Transmission system losses across the U.S. electricity grid." NREL Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-84035. https://www.nrel.gov/grid/transmission-integration.html 3. Energy Information Administration. (2024). "Annual Energy Outlook 2024 with projections to 2050." U.S. Department of Energy. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/ VISUALIZATION 5: Payback Period vs. System Lifespan 1. Aerospace Technology Institute. (2023). "Certification Requirements for Electric Propulsion Systems." CAA Technical Publication TP-2023-E5. https://www.ati.org.uk/ 2. Journal of Transport Economics. (2024). "Comprehensive cost accounting for alternative propulsion systems." 58(2), 234-248. https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-economics-and-policy 3. Transportation Science. (2023). "Asset utilization impacts of charging time requirements." 57(3), 789-805. https://pubsonline.informs.org/journal/trsc VISUALIZATION 6: Total Cost Comparison ($/kWh) 1. Journal of Transport Economics. (2024). "Comprehensive cost accounting for alternative propulsion systems." 58(2), 234-248. https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-economics-and-policy 2. Power Systems Engineering. (2024). "Efficiency assessment of grid-scale battery integration systems." Journal of Energy Storage, 52, 104782. https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-energy-storage 3. Urban Infrastructure Research. (2023). "Infrastructure adaptation costs for transportation electrification." Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 29(3), 04023012. https://ascelibrary.org/journal/jitse4 VISUALIZATION 7: Range Reduction in Adverse Conditions 1. Cold Regions Science and Technology. (2024). "Performance degradation of lithium propulsion systems in extreme environments." 185, 103355. https://www.journals.elsevier.com/cold-regions-science-and-technology 2. IEEE Transportation Electrification. (2024). "Real-world efficiency limitations in transportation battery systems." IEEE Trans. Transport. Electrif., 10(2), 1582-1593. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/RecentIssue.jsp?punumber=6687316 3. Society of Automotive Engineers. (2024). "Environmental performance testing of electric aircraft systems." SAE Technical Paper 2024-01-0875. https://www.sae.org/publications/technical-papers VISUALIZATION 8: Refueling Time Comparison 1. Transportation Science. (2023). "Asset utilization impacts of charging time requirements." 57(3), 789-805. https://pubsonline.informs.org/journal/trsc 2. Journal of Power Sources. (2023). "Degradation mechanisms in transportation battery applications." 532, 227329. https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-power-sources 3. Maritime Economics & Logistics. (2024). "Operational efficiency comparisons between conventional and electric vessel propulsion." 26(2), 112-128. https://link.springer.com/journal/41278

TLDR - There's going to be no return of manufacturing at any relevant scale without a fix in labor, construction, pension, currency, and tariff planning in the right order. We'll see how it all shakes out. 

tldr: India advances as far as it can with poor property laws and limited energy production capacity and the metrics show it.  The Inflection Point is 7-14 years away....  My best gut feeling is that because of India leapfrogging and taking advantage of its density, cheap labor, and large STEM talent.... to feel modernlized like China or the USA- India only needs 2.5.-3.5 MWh/capita annum.  At the current of 1.4 MWh/capita annum and growth rate of ~7%/yr in energy production, India will take ~7 years to feel westernized in terms of infrastructure.  With India, we always take the best estimates and double it. So let's say it's somewhere between 7-14 years and if property law improves, then we could have the great leap sooner. 

Forewarning: This post is the anti-Montauk blog post. Brace yourselves for extreme bias. I'm Texan and not from a Montauk-ian institution.  There's this sense that those in VC and PE and Hedge Funds are foundational bootstrapping swashbuckling industrialists.  Nothing could be further from the truth. In the words of my lacrosse coach, a bit of a drunkard who definitely seemed to partake in cannabis....... "y'all a bunch of bitch-ass punks, get off your high horse."  In a tone of endearment, I regularly ask these people to "get me that white-boy montauk ivy league asian trustwad pension money, so I can wrangle viable returns." I went to a state school and studied engineering, not the pixel-shaking database cell wrangling type.  Keep in mind, if you had bought ISPs with IPV4 allocations, you'd have wiped the floor with everyone and the investment would have vibed with the "internet is eating the world thesis" in a $400B+ market. Who knows the returns on leased IPV4 addresses..... The Montauk Trustwad crew wouldnt' survive a viable DOPE analysis of pension allocations. Read here.  95% of people in these professions and many downstream of these funds are compensated above market management, performance, and employment fees for below public market performance. Most of the companies invested in have negative energy return on investment.  Remember, most of these people who claim to be the most sophisticated investors on the planet missed out on fracking and farm land buying that minted a significant % of multibillionaires in the USA.  The PE funds use cheap gov't capital to roll up assets and raise price. Stealth nationalization of labor and licensure and it leads to a negative quality of life.  The performance of these 3 asset classes is largely opaque. Uncle Sam has been endlessly funding this cohort.  Even a cohort of the "independent thinker" angel investors are largely just chasing pension funds painting the tape.  Once you understand this view on the racket, you can never look back at these asset classes and the people who work in them the same way.  To give you an idea of how big the rackets are in this space, none of the companies like Allvue Systems or any of its competitors has a standardized formula for showing performance of funds, because it's all "bespoke."  Imagine that. 

My gut is telling me that if Deel committed corporate espionage, it wouldn't be beneath them to move money for nefarious folks. I can't ignore my gut.  Why go to such lengths to push narrative to central bankers in Ireland?  I don't believe Deel can survive a source of funds analysis of their company and the funds they've moved.  This could get a LOT worse really fast. 

I think my accumulated portfolio above will outperform 95% of $250M or less VC, PE, and Hedge funds in the next 5 years in terms of risk, liquidity, and returns. I guesstimate a 7x on $TRAK in 5 years or less. repositrak.com I guesstimate a 3x on $PRTH in 5 years or less. prioritycommerce.com I guesstimate a 4x on $NGVC in 5 years or less. naturalgrocers.com Repositrak - $TRAK $TRAK - you can read all my tweets about it if you search. Priority Commerce - $PRTH $PRTH - is a sleeping juggernaut fintech company that combines  • Plastiq • rollfi.xyz (i missed out on angel investing in Rollfi and had even met the founder years ago...facepalm.)  • ACH • Healthcare Platform Payments -  • CFTPay - Debt Resolution Platform  • Traditional credit card processing  I see $PRTH as a 7-8 headed beast when I look at it versus Stripe. It has 140bn in annual processing volume or 1/10th of Stripe's volume. It has as of this morning a 560M valuation which is about 1/166th the market cap of Stripe. I imagine $PRTH can easily roll their own docs and support all the plugins like profitwell.com with ease given their large ecosystem of private companies using the platform for payments. I believe they can contend and compete with private company juggernauts like moderntreasury, column, stripe, Gusto, Emburse, and many more. I have used many of these companies' technologies, missed out on angel investing in them, and for most of these companies to justify going public to their VC's, they need a sustained $5Bn valuation and certain growth metrics to absorb institutional cash and provide liquidity to their investors via IPO. They remain active in the secondary markets for a long while whereas Priority has unfair distribution mechanisms, licenses, and seemingly limitless revenue levers Natural Grocers - $NGVC This is a pure play MAHA stock. NG is a grocery store that looks to be a solid long compounder with a unique selling proposition that I haven't found viable contenders to. They stand against chemicals in food in a way that I haven't seen from any other major retailer. Sprouts sells tons of chemicals, I walked into one a few weeks ago in Houston and was disappointed.  We'll see how all of this shakes out with tariffs and more that are likely to arrive to American shores, but I shall hold and accumulate all of these. 

There's dangerous rhetoric on the order of WMD being pushed as it relates to Iran. Iran does not want to shut down the Strait of Hormuz.  You'll see a lot of American Dynamism Montauk Trustwad New Yorker VC types and people who complain about Qatar and its subversion of DC and hold other middle eastern flags over the US flag without any viable criticism. They are half wits, sell outs, and liars. I consider them disloyal to America.  They missed out on the fracking returns that minted 10's of billionaires but claim to be monstrous supporters of advanced technologies. They are charlatans who are good at VC ponzinomics and cornering pension dollars, but dogshit at chemistry, geology, and energy markets.  There are ~130 US refineries that can process ~19M barrels/day but there's a mismatch in the type of US crude they can process and produce.  You can comfortably ask these war mongering imbeciles the following set of questions about Iran and the region and energy to dispel the drivel they're spewing and as well challenge the notion that Iran would put the Strait of Hormuz at risk.  1. What % of Iran's imports and exports rely on the Strait of Hormuz?  2. Has Iran built viable work arounds to sanctions?  3. Why did Iran's production of O&G increase under Trump sanctions?  4. Do tankers in Iran turn off transponders?  5. How can sanctions be effective when Iran has consolidated its exports to a single major buyer (China) 6. If Chinese independent refineries continue importing Iranian oil while officially complying with sanctions, what real impact can sanctions have? 7. When Iran has developed alternative payment systems outside US control, how can financial sanctions truly restrict its oil revenue? 8. If sanctioned ships still transport oil when demand exists, aren't shipping sanctions merely symbolic? 9. Given that Iran has adapted to operating with disabled transponders and secretive exports, can increased enforcement really track their underground fleet? 10. How can the US replicate the 2019 sanctions impact when the geopolitical landscape has fundamentally changed? 11. If China has created pathways for indirect purchases through third countries and ship-to-ship transfers, aren't sanctions just creating extra steps rather than stopping flow? 12. When Iran now receives cash and in-kind payments through non-US-controlled financial systems, what leverage do financial restrictions actually provide? 13. Has the Hormuz strait ever been blocked in any war?  14. Is it in the interest of Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz even if it can?  15. Which has more waterways - Oman or Iran?  16. If history has consistently shown that superpowers maintain control of vital trade routes, why would the U.S. suddenly abandon this centuries-old strategic principle? 17. When Russia and China are eagerly waiting to fill any power vacuum in the Middle East, can the U.S. really afford to withdraw its presence? 18. How can domestic oil production alone protect America from price shocks when global oil markets remain interconnected regardless of who produces what? 19. Since U.S. refineries are specifically designed for heavier, sour crude oils from the Middle East, doesn't crude quality matter just as much as quantity? 20. If Gulf countries can crash oil markets and reduce U.S. production by over 3 million barrels per day, is American energy independence really as secure as claimed? 21. Shouldn't the cost of protecting the Strait of Hormuz be weighed against the potential catastrophic losses that would follow a U.S. withdrawal, rather than immediate compensation? 22. When the list of entities celebrating American withdrawal includes Iran, ISIS, Al Qaeda, Russia, and China, doesn't that alone warrant reconsideration of such a policy? 23. If U.S. shale production focuses primarily on light crude while refineries need heavier grades, isn't continued access to Middle Eastern oil a matter of economic necessity rather than choice? 24. Why do 45% of China’s crude oil imports go through the Hormuz strait?  25. How can Trump enforce sanctions on Iran and Venezuela without a heavy increase in oil prices?  26. Has there ever been a plan for two competing pipelines from Iran and Qatar?  27. Why was the attack on Saudi Arabia's east west pipeline damaging but not catastrophic and who did it and why? 

I've often thrown pot shots at the Kurzwelian CS neuroscientist self-proclaimed polymath physicist types.  "Great you trustwad, you know physics and math and CS, but you know nothing of chemistry, biology, geology, energy, and materials and the analog realities of the world."  In no uncertain terms, if you see someone peddling quantum computing OR Small modular reactors, you should proceed with these interrogatives.  And PS, I think the vast majority of these people are full of it.  Quantum Computing  1. Explain the materials energy balance of quantum computing.  2. What problems are perfectly framed in such a way that they are waiting for quantum computing to come solve them and in what industry? Go into the specifics?  3. How do you plan to address the chemical reactions and defects that occur during the fabrication of superconducting qubits? 4. What strategies will you employ to ensure the stability and uniformity of materials at the atomic level? 5. How do you propose maintaining a vacuum of 10^-11 torr in a practical setting, especially when actively manipulating ions? 6. What are the estimated energy costs for maintaining such a vacuum at scale? 7. How will you address the defects and variability in the oxide layers of Josephson junctions? 8. What strategies will you use to account for the strain and reconstruction of aluminum surfaces at low temperatures? 9. How do you plan to scale quantum computing systems while maintaining control over quantum states? 10. What error correction techniques will you use to mitigate the effects of noise and decoherence? 11. How do you envision integrating quantum computing into real-world applications, given the current limitations? 12. What timeline do you propose for overcoming these material and engineering challenges? 13. You do realize that achieving a vacuum better than the moon's surface is a bit over the top, right? Are you planning to build a mini black hole to suck out all the air, or do you have another brilliant method in mind? 14. How can materials engineers develop cost-effective, scalable quantum computing hardware that maintains coherence times of at least 10 milliseconds, manages angstrom-scale variations in barrier thickness (e.g., ±0.5 Å), ensures qubit frequencies remain stable within a 1 MHz range despite thermal cycling and ambient conditions, and achieves fault-tolerant structures with thousands of qubits—when current fabrication techniques struggle to maintain consistency across even a few dozen qubits, and the cost of cryogenic cooling systems alone can exceed $5 million per unit, while also ensuring that the quantum error correction overhead does not exceed a factor of 10 in computational resources? SMRs 1. How can SMRs achieve economies of scale when they lack the size advantages of larger reactors, and what strategies can be employed to reduce costs per kilowatt? 2. Given that SMRs have a higher cost per kilowatt (up to $5,000/kW) compared to large reactors, how can they compete with renewable energy sources like solar and wind in terms of Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)? 3. What are the implications of increased neutron leakage in SMRs on fuel efficiency and radioactive waste management, and how can these issues be mitigated? 4. How will the complexity of spent fuel from SMRs, including longer refueling intervals and diverse materials, be managed effectively, and what are the potential costs associated with these complexities? 5. What role can public-private partnerships play in overcoming the financial hurdles faced by SMRs, and how can regulatory frameworks be optimized to support their deployment? 6. Considering the need for large-scale production to achieve economies of scale, what manufacturing and supply chain strategies can be implemented to support widespread SMR deployment? 7. How do the environmental impacts of SMRs, including waste generation and potential for increased radiation-activated materials, compare to those of large reactors and renewable energy sources? 8. What are the potential benefits of using SMRs in remote or off-grid locations, and how can these benefits offset the higher upfront costs and operational complexities? 9. Given the variety of SMR designs (over 70 concepts), how can standardization be achieved to reduce costs and improve market viability? 10. What are the policy and regulatory changes needed to support the commercial viability of SMRs, and how can governments facilitate their deployment? 11. How can materials engineers develop cost-effective materials for SMRs that can withstand temperatures up to 1000 °C, while also mitigating the increased neutron leakage that results in nine times more neutron-activated steel than conventional reactors, given that the cost per kilowatt for SMRs is already significantly higher than for large reactors, often exceeding $5,000/kW?

Designing and Launching a Smart Modular Power Distribution Unit for High Performance Compute [Image]Beyond Cost Savings: Ensuring Operational Integrity By implementing smart PDUs, data centers can get closer to the silicon in a sense and ensure operational integrity and prevent similar incidents.  A report by the Ponemon Institute highlighted that The average cost of a severe data center outage exceeds $100,000.per incident [3]. Power-related issues are a major contributor to these costs with primary causes including power failures and inefficient energy management, both of which can be mitigated with smart PDUs [3]. [Image]Conclusion:  High-density compute environments that are grappling with the complexities of GPU servers or crypto mining have a need for a robust smart PDU.  These tools are not just about cost savings; they are about ensuring the reliability and efficiency of data center operations remotely and while ensuring modularity in the deployment.  References:  1. Uptime Institute Annual Outage Analysis 2022 1. Data center outages are decreasing but remain costly, with over 50% of severe outages costing more than $100,000, and 16% exceeding $1 million. 2. Power disruptions are a leading cause of these outages. 3. Uptime Institute Annual Outage Analysis 2022  2. Gartner Report on Data Center Infrastructure 1. The adoption of smart PDUs is expected to grow significantly, driven by the need for better power management and efficiency. 2. Smart PDUs provide remote monitoring, power cycling, and enhanced energy efficiency. 3. 2022 Gartner Report on Data Center Infrastructure 3. Ponemon Institute Cost of Data Center Outages 2021* 1. The average cost of a severe data center outage exceeds $100,000. 2. Power-related issues are a major contributor to these costs. 3. Ponemon Institute Cost of Data Center Outages 2021 4. Data Center Knowledge Article on Power Management** 1. Real-time monitoring systems are crucial for optimizing power distribution and preventing outages. 2.  Inadequate power monitoring can lead to significant operational disruptions and financial losses. 3. Data Center Knowledge Article on Power Management 5. Uptime Institute Global Data Center Survey 2022** 1. The power-per-rack in data centers has increased significantly, with current ranges between 20 to 40 kW per rack. 2. This increase in power density necessitates advanced power management solutions like smart PDUs. 3. Uptime Institute Global Data Center Survey 2022 6. TechTarget Article on Smart PDUs 1. Smart PDUs offer several advantages over traditional PDUs, including remote monitoring, power cycling, and improved energy efficiency. 2. The adoption of smart PDUs is on the rise due to these benefits. 3. TechTarget Article on Smart PDUs 7. Data Center Frontier Report on Power Distribution 1. Data centers face challenges in managing power distribution due to increasing power demands driven by AI and HPC. 2. Smart PDUs help in addressing these challenges by providing better power management and efficiency. 3. Data Center Frontier Report on Power Distribution  8. IEEE Spectrum Article on Data Center Power Management** 1. Real-time monitoring systems help in reducing energy waste and preventing outages by identifying and addressing power anomalies promptly. 2. IEEE Spectrum Article on Data Center Power Management 9. Data Center Dynamics Article on Power Issues** 1. Power-related issues can lead to severe financial implications, with unplanned outages costing data centers millions of dollars. 2. Implementing smart PDUs can mitigate these costs by providing better power management. 3. Data Center Dynamics Article on Power Issues 10. Network World Article on Data Center Efficiency** 1. Smart PDUs contribute to improved energy efficiency and reduced operational costs in data centers. 2. Network World Article on Data Center Efficiency 11. Uptime Institute Report on Data Center Trends** 1. The adoption of smart PDUs is becoming standard in data centers, driven by the need for better power management and efficiency. 2. Uptime Institute Report on Data Center Trends 12. Gartner Forecast on Data Center Power Management** 1. Gartner predicts significant growth in the adoption of smart PDUs, with data centers increasingly recognizing their benefits. 2. Gartner Forecast on Data Center Power Management 13. Ponemon Institute Report on Data Center Costs** 1. Power-related issues are a major contributor to the high costs of data center outages. 2. Implementing smart PDUs can lead to significant cost savings by optimizing power usage and reducing energy waste. 3. Ponemon Institute Report on Data Center Costs 14. Data Center Knowledge Case Study on Smart PDUs** 1. Case studies have shown that smart PDUs can prevent operational issues and reduce costs in data centers. 2. Data Center Knowledge Case Study on Smart PDUs 15. Uptime Institute Insights on Power Management** 1. Industry experts emphasize the importance of advanced power management in data centers. 2. Smart PDUs play a critical role in enhancing data center operations and reducing the risk of power-related issues. 3. Uptime Institute Insights on Power Management 16. Data Center Dynamics Report on Regulatory Compliance** 1. Data centers must comply with various regulatory requirements related to power management, such as Section 889. 2. Compliance ensures the security and reliability of data center operations. 3. Data Center Dynamics Report on Regulatory Compliance 17. TechTarget Article on Offshore PDUs** 1. Using offshore PDUs can pose risks, including potential security vulnerabilities and lower quality standards. 2. It is crucial for data centers to source reliable, high-quality equipment. 3. TechTarget Article on Offshore PDUs 18. IEEE Article on Data Center Power Density** 1. The power-per-rack in data centers is expected to double in the future, necessitating advanced power management solutions like smart PDUs. 2. IEEE Article on Data Center Power Density 19. Data Center Frontier Insights on Power Distribution** 1. Data centers face challenges in coordinating dense electrical equipment and managing power distribution across compact sites. 2. Smart PDUs help in addressing these challenges by providing better power management and efficiency. 3. Data Center Frontier Insights on Power Distribution 20. Network World Report on Smart PDUs** 1. Smart PDUs are becoming increasingly popular in data centers due to their advanced features and benefits. 2. They provide remote monitoring, power cycling, and enhanced energy efficiency. 3. Network World Report on Smart PDUs

TLDR: The USDA Rural loan program may be a last refuge and upward mobility token available to the masses against the backdrop of a hostile tax regime coming to a locale near you.  We're at a point in time where western countries have onerous pension, infrastructure, and healthcare taxpayer debt per capita and this issue is unlikely to get resolved anytime soon. Greater than 50% of US GDP will become gov't expenditure. ESG crackheads are fully ensnared into every institution and carbon taxes are coming.  I believe the USDA rural loan program is one of the last avenues of scalable(entire families of young people can participate) and huge wealth gains in home ownership that hasn't been foreclosed upon by tyrannical gov't debt expansion. If your salary suddenly increases massively, you get knocked back up to the rate at which you got the USDA rural loan and that's still likely less than mortgage rates. There's conditions around your salary and assets. Homedirection.org is a great place to look as they've cleaned up the UX flow of browsing for homes that are USDA rural loan eligible. [image.png] If I could go back in time, I'd become more handy at repairing things, and lock down this type of loan and buy a house in a burgeoning rural district in a red state that has a high likelihood of becoming a suburban area.   

I've gotten a lot of messages asking how I predicted there would be many assassinations. I've always denoted that historically when the middle eastern faction of powers are disrupted, that assassinations multiply. History doesn't repeat itself, but it certainly has tempo and rhythm. Look at my timestamps. I fully believe there's going to be a lot more assassinations, helicopter accidents, and health problems amongst leadership globally. There's a glitch in the fabric of power that is beyond my cognition, but the outcome seems the same. Seize power by any means necessary - Kompromat, assassinations, etc...  I would not be surprised if there are massive hack leaks globally to control the fiefdoms of the elites.  Watch closely and pet all the dogs. 

Over the years many of you have seen me write about how onerous pension, infrastructure, and healthcare debt per taxpayer became a wrecking ball to humanity and particularly so for locales with a lot of it. California is a great example. Browse CalMatters and TruthInAccounting for endless data points. There's A TON of people in tech who want to fix California, but they've misframed the problem. I seek to suggest some simple fixes that if well aimed could wreak havoc on the doom loop maiming the quality of life with high costs and weak public services. TLDR: To begin to fix California, you've got to at least do the following as the ante....anything else is a stopgap solution that remedies the symptom but doesn't treat the underlying cause.  • Raise the amount of signatures required for a ballot proposition to 10% or more of a gubernatorial election or 5% or more of a general election. This is an issue.  • Outlaw paid signatures being gathered by special interest groups that can lie to uninformed individuals to get their interests on the ballot. It's damn near impossible to reverse the outcomes of a passed ballot initiative as the requirements are onerous to do so, not easy, and require significant legal meddling. The repeal process is more aggressive and onerous than the process to push a ballot into place. The unit economics of this mean an infinite doom loop for the state of California. 

I guesstimate that commercial office property taxes make up a 5% to 15% chunk of a locale's tax revenue. It's something worthy of discussion. Here are the descriptions of the fiber optic cable projects with links to more information. I generated it with AI, I wish they'd hyperlink to their sources, oof.  1. PDSCN (Pacific Data Super Cable Network) - The PDSCN is a high-capacity fiber optic cable system that connects the United States to Asia, providing a critical link for international data traffic. The project involves the installation of thousands of kilometers of undersea fiber optic cables, requiring careful planning and execution to ensure reliable and high-speed data transmission. 2. 2Africa- The 2Africa project is a massive undersea fiber optic cable system that will connect Africa, Europe, and Asia, spanning over 37,000 kilometers. This project aims to provide high-speed internet access to millions of people in Africa and beyond, promoting digital inclusion and economic growth. 3. Equiano-The Equiano project is a subsea fiber optic cable system that will connect Europe, Africa, and Asia, with a total length of over 15,000 kilometers. This project is designed to provide high-capacity and low-latency connectivity, supporting the growing demand for internet services in these regions. 4. Gati Shakti - The Gati Shakti project is a national fiber optic cable network in India, aimed at providing high-speed internet access to rural and urban areas. This project involves the installation of thousands of kilometers of fiber optic cables, requiring careful planning and execution to ensure reliable and high-speed data transmission. 5. Coral Bridge - The Coral Bridge project is a fiber optic cable system that connects the Pacific Islands, providing critical telecommunications infrastructure to these remote communities. This project involves the installation of undersea fiber optic cables, requiring specialized equipment and expertise to ensure reliable and high-speed data transmission. 6. KT-Telin - The KT-Telin project is a joint venture between Korean and Indonesian telecommunications companies to build a fiber optic cable system connecting Korea and Indonesia. This project aims to provide high-capacity and low-latency connectivity, supporting the growing demand for internet services in these regions. 7. Te Waipounamu- The Te Waipounamu project is a fiber optic cable system that connects New Zealand's South Island, providing high-speed internet access to rural and urban areas. This project involves the installation of thousands of kilometers of fiber optic cables, requiring careful planning and execution to ensure reliable and high-speed data transmission. 8. Bulikula and Halaihai- The Bulikula and Halaihai projects are fiber optic cable systems that connect the Pacific Islands, providing critical telecommunications infrastructure to these remote communities. These projects involve the installation of undersea fiber optic cables, requiring specialized equipment and expertise to ensure reliable and high-speed data transmission. 9. Digicel- The Digicel project is a fiber optic cable system that connects the Caribbean region, providing high-speed internet access to island nations. This project involves the installation of undersea fiber optic cables, requiring careful planning and execution to ensure reliable and high-speed data transmission. 10. Humboldt- The Humboldt project is a fiber optic cable system that connects the west coast of South America, providing high-capacity and low-latency connectivity. This project aims to support the growing demand for internet services in these regions, promoting digital inclusion and economic growth. 11. KLI (Kochi)- The KLI project is a fiber optic cable system that connects India's Kochi region, providing high-speed internet access to urban and rural areas. This project involves the installation of thousands of kilometers of fiber optic cables, requiring careful planning and execution to ensure reliable and high-speed data transmission. This is a wrecking ball to working in the office. Few truly high agency software developers love showing up to the office. The offices and the landlords have to accommodate for the future.  Unless you've got meals, gyms, trainer, a sauna, and a ton of dogs, I see no reason people who have left the office will rejoin to have a commute when they can literally work from anywhere.  Furthermore, there's the issue of new and onerous EEOC mandates.....

• We're all gonna be gov't contractors shortly - we're going to be Europe'd. - 50% of GDP will become gov't expenditure in the USA in 24-48 months or less.  • Mo Debt, Mo Venture money- The broker the gov't, the more insane the investment to chase yield - there will be even more venture money shortly in the system.  • Labor Racketeering with Gov't dollars - Productive Pension money will lock up licensed labor with "roll ups" bidding up the cost of everything. The jaws of occupational licensure will be felt acutely in every part of your life. My friend Adam taught me about this for years.  • You're getting Europe'd Right before your eyes - The economically productive folks are wrangling the politburo to line their pockets and none of you have protested. 

One of my "gut" hunches that's worth digging into when I get the time is that the sand shortage coming to all construction processes will be acutely felt and our hunt for it will be like sacrificing altitude to gain air speed. It is our "spice" in a sense and we can only get the ideal modalities of high-demand salt by eroding our soils and salinating our waters. This is probably the least well structured of my blog posts and I realize it comes out like a cacophony of thoughts and random evidence. As always if you want to discuss these things, feel free to ping me via twitter or holler via signal. 

I'm writing here from Spain.  In conclusion, anytime someone tells you about fusion and how groundbreaking it will be, please approach it with great skepticism as it relates the feedstock pricing, reactor jacket engineering, and transmission of energy. 

I got way more subscribers than I expected doing this. I've been work-cationing in Europe for the past 6 weeks spending a few weeks with my business partner here in Lisbon and also spending time in Spain.  Next up on the plate in the next 4-8 weeks, I'll be writing about:  • Why Fusion is Irrelevant and Unlikely  • What the World's Transformer Shortage Means for Natural Gas • Water Shortages - Why are they actually occurring at an increasing pace? • Repositrak - This one is ~4.5 years of time I've spent researching, diligencing, and compiling.  You might be curious to know what types of people subscribe to this newsletter. I  downloaded the list and ran it through clearbit.com to give me some clarity.  • Tech Founders (~30%) - Founders from all over.   • VC, PE, and Real Estate Fund Managers (~45%) - I suppose this number surprised me and I'm flattered given how many shots I take at y'all's tribe.  • Angel Investors (~10%)  - Some of them I've invested in and some I've never met.  • Tech Employees and Miscellaneous (~5%) - FAANGN + other startups  • Energy and Macro Fintwit Enthusiasts (~10%) - Some of my folks from Houston and random array of people.  As always, feel free to ping me via twitter or dm me on signal or whatsapp if you want to discuss any of these topics or the previous writings. 

TLDR: American Dynamism or American reshoring isn’t coming to a city near you at any level of real big scale. Most American degreed STEM grads cannot pass a PE(professional engineer) exam. As a test to future employees in different companies, I’ve frequently given them JEE questions, they can’t pass and this is India’s college entrance exam to get into the top technical institutes. I’ve done this with students who are graduated from MIT, Google, Stanford, Harvard, etc…. Not all STEM programs are of equal caliber. You’re deluded if you believe otherwise. Asymmetric Trade Agreements All or most of our trade agreements allow other countries to dump goods on the USA. KORUS, NAFTA, CAFTA, TPP, TISA are all just basically acronyms for “let other countries achieve trade surpluses with the USA and they end up exporting way more goods to the USA than we export to them.” Closing Thoughts  The only way to address a problem is to frame it well. One of the mantras in engineering is that you’ll spend most of your time framing and measuring a problem before solving it. I think most of the American Dynamism crowd is well intentioned, but horrifically deluded about how the world works if they’re not talking about any of the above items. We have to reframe the conversation with hard STEM talent that has actually completed industrialist workflows in the past leading the charge.  If you're working on hard tech engineering, feel free to reach out to me. 

This post was originally written here and got bookmarked over 500 times, way more than I expected.  For the engineers who wanna build physical things at a large scale in the USA (not using pension money or gov't or VC money)/ ie - being resourceful, here's some brouhaha for ya...... For everyone else, this will put you to sleep........ I have had the privilege of working with squadrons of operations research, applied math, and materials engineering PHDs and more. I'm one of 60 engineers on the planet trained in my specialty (operations research + polymer eng.), 1 of 20 in the USA, and 1 of 3 that has designed, scaled, and optimized 100M+ tonne systems multiple times over. My predecessors in some of the companies were ex-CIA and some advised congress on issues related to nat sec. Learned a lot from them. Things to know/learn/be cognizant of: 1) Objective Functions - declare a specific objective(https://byjus.com/question-answer/what-is-the-objective-function-in-linear-programming-problems/#:~:text=The%20real%2Dvalued%20function%20whose,are%20constraints%20and%20are%20variables….) 2) Constraints (https://leanproduction.com/theory-of-constraints/…)  3) How do you measure reality? (read the book "A measure of reality")  4) Local operating environment variables -- you will always unravel the taxonomy and schema of both competitors benchmarking and the environments themselves iteratively. ie leave room to add more columns of data to your modeling and repeat til you have a full picture of the data model and operating environment.  5) Model for weather, breaks in transportation, and feedstock volatility. (Example, I designed a facility that utilized liquid nitrogen to make a byproduct of a polymer --- the O&G prices and futures and quantity I could buy in influenced the viability of the overall polymer's end use case)  6) "Only the paranoid survive." - You need to have a working memory of thousands of real world technologies and a benchmark of their EROI (Energy return on investment)  7) Always, always, talk to the people on the front lines and incentivize their participation in the outcome. Your models will improve.  8) Test your CFO on combinatorics and prob/stat - figure out of they're a glorified bookkeeper or an actual wrangler. (Can they do regressions?) etc.. 9) Deduce the cost of the Bill of Materials and its supply chain not in terms of dollar costs, but in terms of kilowatt hours - this gives you negotiating room with suppliers and service vendors as you can deduce their relative hard costs. Track back to costs. You'll have to put elbow grease into looking up prices on electricity across your forecasted locations in the supply chain. This one thing will give you a basis of measurement that others cannot wrangle.  10) Model feedstock volatility against the Federal Stress Indexes on the dollar.  11) Understanding feedstock volatilities will take you a lifetime, but you need to with relative certainty have low, medium, or high conviction and know where you sit in that chain.  12) Getting verbally violent pseudorandomly with suppliers when all things are calm will prevent headaches in the future. Keep them active, they will get lazy. This is the annoying cost of doing business. Also monitor their churn.  13) If a vendor is telling you that a machine has a max throughput, they're probably lying to you.  14) Throw anyone out of your org if they call themselves a polymath or obsess over the notion of IQ.  15) An engineer who does not break bread with their technicians or doesn't know them well enough is a recipe for danger int he facility, fix immediately.  16) if you want data across the org, assume you'll need a political or violent (not physically) trojan horse to obtain it.  17) if a data request takes longer than 3 days, then the org has to be ripped apart and fixed from the silicon up so to speak.

Kumar’s Natural Gas Sector Bull Thesis Disclosure: My gambles here from least risky to most risky were $FCG, $UAN, and $TELL. I now believe the nat gas bull thesis is strong, but I believe picking the winners is harder now and the thesis is now mainstream. This is not investment advice.  “"In short, China 1000x'd the number of compressed natural gas vehicles in their country in 15 years. They rely heavily on imported natural gas. America is the mecca of natural gas with 65M homes that have natural gas piped in. We often ask 'who killed the electric vehicle' when we should ask 'who killed the compressed natural gas vehicle."   - Me in early 2019” [Image]Not investment advice.  Tldr: My ongoing thesis is that natural gas consumption / kwh will go up for mankind as a %. Feel free to dm me at twitter.com/datarade or tweet to me there.  I began with this thesis in December 2019 and made my bets right around then to March 2020. Published here in mid-2021-ish.  • Nuclear power plant shut downs, delays, commissionings, regulations  • There are ~440 nuclear power plants on the planet.  • Currently it’s difficult to track, but I estimate that there’s ~40 that are being shut down and deactivated. Would love to get more accurate numbers on this.  • IAE.org OR World Nuclear.org  • Every plant shutdown creates an additional 100M-200M cubic feet of daily natural gas demand.  • 3.8% CAGR - https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/nuclear-power-plant-and-equipment-market#:~:text=The%20global%20nuclear%20power%20plant,3.7%25%20from%202018%20to%202025 • I believe that regulatory power will act against nuclear energy across the world, everywhere except China.  • In the United States, Only 2 nuclear plants were built in the last 25 years. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) .  • Even if publicly gaining popularity, nuclear power plants have a strong NIMBY effect. Often localities do not wish to have nuclear power plants.  Air Quality Problems  • breezometer.com • Viable non-US nation states will provide increasing incentives to clean up air quality issues. Natural gas burns clean.  Natural Gas Vehicle and Station Proliferation  • Egypt • Egypt is going to 1k stations by the end of 2021. They currently have 200.  • Egypt is subsidizing the conversion of 400k vehicles, approximately 1 in 10 vehicles in the country.  • https://www.zawya.com/mena/en/business/story/Egypt_plans_to_operate_1000_natural_gas_fuelling_stations__Minister-SNG_218134824/ • All new cars sold in the country are mandated CNG: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-12/egypt-to-require-new-vehicles-to-run-on-natural-gas-sisi-says • India • India is going from 2500 stations currently to 10K in < 8 years.  • https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/govt-targets-10000-cng-outlets-in-five-years/2080336/ • India has 2,713 stations as of January 2021 • 60% of the gasoline and diesel prices are driven by tax.  • CNG is effectively 1.5x-2.4x cheaper than diesel and gasoline right now.  • China  • China went from 6000 CNG vehicles to 6M CNG vehicles from 2000 to 2017.  • 1000x multiple in 17  years. I don’t know the numbers right now on CNG vehicles and stations in China.  • By the end of 2018, ownership of motor vehicles in China reached 327 million units including 240 million cars, and accordingly there were up to 110,000 filling stations and at least 9,000 natural gas stations across the country, according to a new reports by Research and Markets. • https://www.petrolplaza.com/news/21890 • The South China Sea has 180T cubic feet of natural gas.  • China consumes 10T cubic feet of natural gas annually.  Natural Gas Peaking Plant expansion  • CAGR of ~5% • https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/natural-gas-fired-electricity-generation-industry Other • Fertilizer 2.5% CAGR for the next 5 years.  • Renewables Proliferation = more natural gas consumption/kwh • 36 states have substantial renewable goals due by 2025. State Renewable Portfolio Standards and Goals (ncsl.org) • Many states have renewable mandates due in 2025 and 2030. • For the grid to function in a way American’s expect, many states can not truly hit their Renewable mandates without relying on stable sources of energy (such as Nuclear or fossil fuel).  • Out of the big 3 fossil fuel, natural gas emits the least amount of carbon. • To fill in the gap between mandate and reality, states/regulatories may start redefining natural gas as green. • Natural gas could be a major player in the “renewable” space ie how the US’s oldest source of energy “Wood” has been redefined as a renewable source “Biomass”. Biomass explained - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) • Because natural gas is simply hydrocarbon, there are already countless “green” ways to produce such as from food waste, anaerobic digestion etc even without a re-definition.  • Tax Policy - Governments provide discounts to Natural Gas adopters vs. Gasoline + Diesel adopters • Natural Gas Commercial vehicles have lower maintenance costs.  • Natural Gas Pipeline expansion • 3.4% CAGR • https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/gas-pipeline-infrastructure-market#:~:text=Report%20Overview,3.4%25%20from%202020%20to%202027 • The reason the USA has not adopted CNG vehicles at scale is completely politically driven and has little to do with economics or technicals of natural gas. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1045211 • The median/general break even price for natural gas producers is $3.00 per MMBtu Are Natural Gas Prices Below $3 Sustainable? - Enerdynamics Added by people other than Kumar:  • For nearly 2 entire  years (2019 and 2020), natural gas was below the general break even price. And much so in certain months.  • Haynesville break-even is as low as $2.05 with median near $2.25  • Marcellus break- even is as low as $1.55 with median near $1.85 • For the past 6 years, natural gas prices have been near or the break even point. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdm.htm • (opinion) To recoup past losses, suppliers will naturally increase price (or shut down) irrespective of many demand trends for a sustained period of time.  • Natural Gas supply (U.S.) • ~135 Bcf of supply from US (from Rystad Energy).  • Permian operators will be able to ramp gas production (+25 to 35% in next 3 years) with new pipelines going to Mexico, Corpus Christie (LNG export), and local markets • Haynesville operators have increased rig activity and location advantage to Gulf Coast LNG export • Marcellus and Utica (North East) will meet US demand but actively seeking ways to get to Gulf Coast via new gas pipelines • EQT largest independent natgas producer; using electric & dual-fuel fleets to complete wells and others watching to see how the company reduces diesel costs and increase use of “field” natgas • Global: 10 billion boe (barrels of oil equivalent) discovered in 2020  • Risk:  • FERC implementing new policies to restrict pipeline development;  • bitcoin and other crypto miners burning gas (first “stranded” or “to reduce flaring” in permian, perhaps ultimately gas that’d otherwise be economical to take away)  • US Commercial Vehicles, Demand • Logistics continue to grow to increased imports, ecommerce, and short-haul demand • LNG / CNG has better energy density and fits heavy-duty long distance requirements • Dual-fuel engines from CAT are aggressively being adopted by oilfield companies. CAT is deploying across Mining and other industries • Fedex contracted CNG truck fleet for long-haul and electric fleets for short-haul • Top 3 commercial vehicle fleet have ~300,000 trucks/tractor-trailers • LNG Supply / Demand • LNG production is expected to reach 672 Mt in 2040 with US, Middle East, and Mozambique. Good graphic on gas markets supply/demand  • China adding 2-3 LNG terminals and currently has 22 LNG plants able to receive 81 Mt/y • CNPC expected China's pipeline gas imports to reach about 100 Bcm by 2025, nearly double from the 2019 level • Risk: US policy, if Biden limits export capability • Idiosyncratic market • Important to understand that natural gas/LNG market is not analogous to oil market • Difficult to transport and store; high fixed costs of midstream, floating and fixed liquefaction, regas, etc. infrastructure • Mostly producers and end-users drive the market; unlikely there will be a “global benchmark price” or hyper liquid spot/derivatives market that resembles Brent or WTI • Risk: US policy, if Biden limits export capability • Global Natgas Demand • S&P estimates ~5% increase in 2021 • Shell demand estimates • 1% global CAGR in • Asia  • 3% CAGR gas demand • 4% CAGR lng import (600 BCM by 2040; currently ~ 300 BCM) • BP  • statistical review of world energy  • https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf • Renewable Natural Gas • Not sure if you include this but methane from landfills have lower carbon intensity • RNG primer - https://www.mjbradley.com/sites/default/files/MJB%26A_RNG_Final.pdf