tldr: There's a lot of bullshit going on right now about Lithium propulsion boats and planes, don't trust the energy return on investment or viability of its profitability...it's fundamentally a net negative energy return on investment. Edits* - there's a hacker news thread where I'm getting roasted by programmers, I'll survive. Profitable = productively profitable for the amount of PE or venture capital invested when benchmarked against other relevant assets with the same grid thesis. There's a lot of mids who will argue about LCOEs being wrong but they never propose an alternative to their overly optimistic capacity factors, neglect of degradation and replacement costs, and inconsistent-or excluded charging costs(grids matter). Elon lies through his teeth and boldly in a room full of people. Physicists Get Too Much Street Cred and Access to Venture CapitalI've often opined that physicists are the ultimate fauxdustrialists. Readily able to lie at a moment's notice. Many refer to themselves as "polymaths." I think the physicist mindset has infected a large swath of venture capital with delusions about what's possible with lithium ion battery technology. Transportation Science research shows that even "fast charging" still takes 40 minutes to reach 80% capacity, compared to 7 minutes for a complete conventional refill. This directly translates to a 22% reduction in asset utilization—meaning electric fleets need to be significantly larger to provide the same service levels. Let's Get Real: The Path ForwardLook, I'm not saying electric propulsion can never work for aviation and marine applications. I'm saying it doesn't work now, and it won't work until we see: 1. Battery energy density improve by at least 4-5× (which requires fundamental material science breakthroughs, not incremental improvements) 2. Grid carbon intensity decrease by 60-70% across all regions (not just the Pacific Northwest) 3. Fast charging technology that can actually deliver 100% capacity in under 15 minutes without cooking the batteries According to Resources, Conservation & Recycling, end-of-life processing adds another $35-50/kWh in specialized handling costs—battery disposal isn't just an environmental challenge, it's an economic one. Chemistry is Hard. Much harder than physics. Electric propulsion for aircraft and boats remains an economically unsustainable proposition that fails basic energy accounting. Anyone claiming profitability is either leaving out major parts of the lifecycle analysis or banking on massive subsidies to mask the fundamental problems. Chemistry doesn't care about your investment prospectus, and thermodynamics can't be overruled by marketing. The numbers don't lie—lithium propulsion for aircraft and boats is some montauk VC pension hot potato bullshit that has no viable conspiracy to overcome its fundamental atomic limitations. Citations: Visualization 1: 1. Gruber, P., et al. (2021). "Global Lithium Availability and Extraction Environmental Impacts." Resources Policy, 70, 101976. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101976 2. International Energy Agency. (2023). "The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions." IEA Special Report. https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions 3. Electric Power Research Institute. (2023). "Grid Integration Challenges for High-Power Transportation Charging." EPRI Technical Report 3002025947. https://www.epri.com/research/products/000000003002025947 4. Journal of Cleaner Production. (2023). "Energy requirements in global battery supply chains." 385, 135456. https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-cleaner-production 5. Maritime Economics & Logistics. (2024). "Maintenance economics of electric vessel propulsion." 26(1), 78-94. https://link.springer.com/journal/41278 VISUALIZATION 2: Energy Density Comparison1. MIT Technology Review. (2024). "The Energy Density Wall: Why Batteries Still Can't Compete with Fossil Fuels." Spring 2024 Edition. https://www.technologyreview.com/energy 2. Society of Automotive Engineers. (2024). "Weight analysis of electric propulsion systems for aviation applications." SAE Technical Paper 2024-01-0873. https://www.sae.org/publications/technical-papers 3. Journal of Aircraft Design. (2023). "Volume and weight constraints in electric aircraft design." 42(3), 308-321. https://arc.aiaa.org/loi/ja Visualization 3 1. Ambrose, H., et al. (2022). "Life-cycle analysis of high-capacity transportation batteries." Journal of Industrial Ecology, 24(1), 120-132. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/15309290 2. BloombergNEF. (2023). "Battery Metals Outlook 2023-2030." Bloomberg New Energy Finance. https://about.bnef.com/battery-metals-outlook/ 3. Sustainable Energy Technologies. (2024). "Energy requirements for advanced battery manufacturing facilities." 45, 101203. https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/sustainable-energy-technologies-and-assessments 4. Resources, Conservation & Recycling. (2024). "End-of-life costs for transportation-grade lithium batteries." 185, 106686. https://www.journals.elsevier.com/resources-conservation-and-recycling VISUALIZATION 4: U.S. Grid Carbon Intensity by Region 1. U.S. EPA eGRID. (2023). "Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database." Environmental Protection Agency. https://www.epa.gov/egrid 2. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. (2023). "Transmission system losses across the U.S. electricity grid." NREL Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-84035. https://www.nrel.gov/grid/transmission-integration.html 3. Energy Information Administration. (2024). "Annual Energy Outlook 2024 with projections to 2050." U.S. Department of Energy. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/ VISUALIZATION 5: Payback Period vs. System Lifespan 1. Aerospace Technology Institute. (2023). "Certification Requirements for Electric Propulsion Systems." CAA Technical Publication TP-2023-E5. https://www.ati.org.uk/ 2. Journal of Transport Economics. (2024). "Comprehensive cost accounting for alternative propulsion systems." 58(2), 234-248. https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-economics-and-policy 3. Transportation Science. (2023). "Asset utilization impacts of charging time requirements." 57(3), 789-805. https://pubsonline.informs.org/journal/trsc VISUALIZATION 6: Total Cost Comparison ($/kWh) 1. Journal of Transport Economics. (2024). "Comprehensive cost accounting for alternative propulsion systems." 58(2), 234-248. https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-economics-and-policy 2. Power Systems Engineering. (2024). "Efficiency assessment of grid-scale battery integration systems." Journal of Energy Storage, 52, 104782. https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-energy-storage 3. Urban Infrastructure Research. (2023). "Infrastructure adaptation costs for transportation electrification." Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 29(3), 04023012. https://ascelibrary.org/journal/jitse4 VISUALIZATION 7: Range Reduction in Adverse Conditions 1. Cold Regions Science and Technology. (2024). "Performance degradation of lithium propulsion systems in extreme environments." 185, 103355. https://www.journals.elsevier.com/cold-regions-science-and-technology 2. IEEE Transportation Electrification. (2024). "Real-world efficiency limitations in transportation battery systems." IEEE Trans. Transport. Electrif., 10(2), 1582-1593. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/RecentIssue.jsp?punumber=6687316 3. Society of Automotive Engineers. (2024). "Environmental performance testing of electric aircraft systems." SAE Technical Paper 2024-01-0875. https://www.sae.org/publications/technical-papers VISUALIZATION 8: Refueling Time Comparison 1. Transportation Science. (2023). "Asset utilization impacts of charging time requirements." 57(3), 789-805. https://pubsonline.informs.org/journal/trsc 2. Journal of Power Sources. (2023). "Degradation mechanisms in transportation battery applications." 532, 227329. https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-power-sources 3. Maritime Economics & Logistics. (2024). "Operational efficiency comparisons between conventional and electric vessel propulsion." 26(2), 112-128. https://link.springer.com/journal/41278
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