My latest obsession has been looking up median ages of countries. It's a whirlwind of a subject and my mind meanders while I write this.
I am someone who for all practical purposes is always thinking about metrics, data, conditional probabilities, human behavior, energy, and how they intertwine in stochastic systems.
Median age for the last decade wasn't on my mind as much, but now it's going heavily mainstream front and center.
Japan will soon have more people over the age of 50 than under which is a bit wild to think about.
The median age of the world is ~30 years old.
Sources: World Population Review and CIA World Factbook (2024)
The woes of a high median age compound.
For example, try getting a house fixed in Spain.
I think the average construction worker there is about 40-50 last time I checked. The median age of a plumber in the USA is 41 years old.
The reason not to buy construction property in various countries is because maintaining the housing will become too onerous with median ages above 40. Only large players will be able to wrangle and hedge prices.
The USA has a whopping 14 MWh/capita annum, it would service nation states well to incentivize density and walkability. I asked for a list of the top 30 countries to Claude. It generated the above.
The Texas Triangle can fit 4.9B people in it with half the density of Manhattan, or so Claude tells me.
Albeit, there's rules against building things with density in the Great State of Texas.
Exhibit A:
Texas Density Prevention Rules
Single-Family Zoning: ~75% of residential land in major Texas cities (e.g., Austin, Dallas) is zoned for single-family homes, prohibiting multifamily units like apartments or townhouses. Texas Tribune, 2024 Minimum Lot Sizes: Typical 5,000-7,500 sq ft requirements in urban areas (e.g., Dallas R-7.5(A) zoning) limit the number of homes per lot. City of Dallas Zoning Parking Minimums: Mandates of 1.5-2 parking spaces per unit, consuming 300-400 sq ft per space, reduce space for housing. City of Austin Code Height Restrictions: Limits of 35-40 ft (2-3 stories) in most residential zones prevent taller buildings that could house more residents. City of San Antonio Code
That's just one state that has ~9% of the US population.
I do believe the future of the world is African countries whereby property rights are enforced and energy production is ramping up. Ghana? Kenya? I'm unsure.
What I'm sure of is that no country in history to my recollection has conquered the problem of declining fertility rates that go below replacement rates with burgeoning expenses.
World is a weird place.
Things will get weirder as westerners don't know their neighbors nor do they have sustainable succession plans.
Entire novels could be written about property rights in India and succession disasters.
India's Land Fragmentation & Succession
Decreasing Average Farm Size - India's average farm size has declined by 57% from 2.28 hectares in 1970-71 to 0.98 hectares in 2018-19, with marginal holdings (less than 1 hectare) now constituting 68.5% of all farm holdings. (Source: Agricultural Census 2015-16, Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, Government of India)
Increasing Number of Land Holdings - The total number of operational holdings has increased from 71 million in 1970-71 to 146.5 million in 2015-16, nearly doubling while the total agricultural land area remained relatively stable, demonstrating severe fragmentation through inheritance divisions. (Source: State of Indian Agriculture 2017, Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare)
Regional Variation in Fragmentation - The severity of fragmentation varies significantly by state, with Kerala having the smallest average holding size at 0.18 hectares while Punjab maintains larger farms averaging 3.62 hectares, highlighting how inheritance laws and economic conditions affect fragmentation patterns differently across regions. (Source: Agriculture Census 2015-16; Economic Survey of India 2019-20)
What are some potential solutions?
My belief is that the only way to fix this is to go back to some level of tribalism with lower stress around housing, cosmetic, and recreational costs but coupled with higher density and convenience.
Certainly, there'd have to be higher localized reliance and local control.
I've tinkered with the idea of how occupational licensure reductions might create a small but immediate bump in fertility and decrease in cortisol. I think women get higher cortisol when nail and hair and beauty work help costs $500-$1000/mo in developed countries - a byproduct of onerous licensure requirements.
Hard to say if it would or wouldn't work with certainty, but certainly nation states everywhere will be looking for solutions to the aging population.
Declining birth rates don't stand the test of time even with religions that desire progeny proliferation.
On a 25-50 year basis, my money isn't on India or western countries, my money is on African countries.
Perhaps we all die to a lack of fertile death, soil Salination-Erosion-denitrification...it's hard to say.
50% of the world's 4 quadrillion calories are serviced by nitrogen fertilizer produced with 5% of the world's total natural gas.
That fertilizer wrecks the composition of soil at an atomic level making it less productive on a calorie/hectare basis.
The total debt of the world is about 350 trillion dollars or ~$35k for every man, woman, and child.
Sometimes, I regret studying chemistry and math, but alas...there's only one life to live....well kinda.
Also, I think it's time for some debt jubilees or wars to reset the debt or have it forgotten.
